The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has released its official numbers for the FY 2026 H1B cap season, and the headline is unmistakable: registrations dropped to ‑their lowest level since the electronic lottery launched in 2020[1]. That contraction, however, is good news for employers playing by the rules—selection odds climbed to roughly one in three.

The Numbers at a Glance

	Fiscal Year	Total Registrations	Eligible Registrations	Selected Registrations	Selection Rate*
	2021	274,237	269,424	124,415	45 %
	2022	308,613	301,447	131,924	43 %
	2023	483,927	474,421	127,600	26 %
	2024	780,884	758,994	188,400	24 %
	2025	479,953	470,342	135,137	28 %
	2026	358,737	343,981	120,141	33 %

*Selection rate is calculated from selected registrations divided by total registrations for the initial lottery.

USCIS also disclosed that FY 2026 saw about 57,600 distinct employers—virtually the same universe as last year’s 52,700—filing on behalf of ≈ 336,000 unique beneficiaries. The average beneficiary appeared in just 1.01 registrations, compared with 1.06 last year and a staggering 2.17, during the fraud plagued peak of FY 2024.

What Drove the 25 % Drop in Filings?

Beneficiary-Centric Lottery Rule: The agency’s final rule, which went into effect last season, gives every beneficiary a single “lottery ticket” regardless of how many employers file for them. That neutralizes the advantage of mass duplicate filings. Only 7,828 multiple registrations survived screening this year—a 98% reduction from FY 2024.

Fraud Investigations and Deterrence: USCIS has continued to deny or revoke petitions tied to invalid attestations, and it openly refers what it perceives as egregious cases to federal prosecutors. The chilling effect is obvious in the data.

Higher Registration Fee: The fee rose from $10 to $215 per beneficiary for FY 2026—a twenty-fold increase that makes speculative or shell filings prohibitively expensive.

Labor Market Realities: Layoffs and slower hiring in tech dampened demand, especially among consulting firms that once blanketed the lottery with registrations.

A Five-Year Trendline

The FY 2024 surge now looks like an outlier—a perfect storm of post-pandemic pent-up demand, loophole driven multiple filings, and rock-bottom costs. Since then, filings have fallen 54%. Yet the population of employers that have filed registrations has barely budged, underscoring that USCIS is shrinking the lottery by squeezing out bad actors, not legitimate businesses.

Why Selection Odds Improved

With only 120,141 selected registrations (118,660 unique beneficiaries) against 343,981 eligible entries, the initial round win rate hit roughly 34%. Compare that with 24% during the FY 2024 frenzy. A one in three chance at a case being selected in the lottery is still a gamble—but it is far better than Vegas odds and markedly more predictable for workforce planning.

Outlook

USCIS shows no appetite for retreat. The beneficiary-centric model is positioned as a permanent fix, and the agency has hinted at rules to tighten end client documentation and onsite inspections. Congress, meanwhile, has revived bipartisan talk of raising the 65,000 statutory cap, but a midterm election year calculus makes quick action unlikely. Employers should assume the current lottery framework—and its improved odds for legitimate registrants—will govern at least the next couple H-1B cap cycles.

FY 2026’s datapoint to a more predictable registration landscape. Demand still outpaces the statutory cap, yet employers who submitted compliant registrations saw their best selection odds in years. Maintaining rigorous documentation and planning early for alternative visa strategies will remain essential as we move toward FY 2027.

[1] https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-workers/h-1b-specialty-occupations/h-1b-electronic-registration-process